A tale – less a few cities
Soft Brexit or hard Brexit its all bad news for cities across the UK in a new report by the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) and Centre for Cities, which examines for the first time the potential impact of both scenarios on British cities in the ten years (our emphasis) following the implementation of new trade arrangements with the EU.
It says : “All British cities are set to be negatively affected as a result of higher trade costs between the UK and EU, and this impact will be greater in the scenario of a ‘hard Brexit’. Economic output in cities (as measured by Gross Value Added, GVA) is predicted to be 1.2 per cent lower on average under a ‘soft Brexit’ and 2.3 per cent lower under a ‘hard Brexit’ than if the UK remained in the EU.”
You will note Belfast and Derry do not feature in the report at all but its hard to imagine how they can escape such impacts.
Interestingly the report says areas that voted Remain, such as in the South of England, will be worst impacted in the first instance but will have the capacity to recover more quickly and the areas that favoured Leave will be less impacted initally but have less capacity to recover from that impact. Such a dynamic happened post 2007 recession.
For those interested in drilling a little deeper – here is the technical analysis upon which the report is based.