Source: Irish exports to UK could fall by 30%

Since about mid-October there has been a qualitative shift in Brexit research across Europe and in Ireland the way is being led by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). At the beginning of November it modelled the post-Brexit Irish economy in collaboration with the Department of Finance. Now it has gone down into sectoral detail with “The Product and Sector Level Impact of a Hard Brexit across the EU”, Working Paper no. 550.

This is essential reading for serious students of Brexit. The main general conclusion is that exports to the UK could fall by up to 30% in the absence of an agreed EU-UK  deal, representing an annual loss of €4.5 billion. In such a situation Ireland would be bound to apply World Trade Organisation tariff and the way of the world is that retaliatory British tariffs would be bound to follow. “With tariff rates across sectors varying from 0% to 50%, the tariff faced by each country depends crucially on the pattern of products traded, ” says the ESRI. And tariffs generally go straight on to the end price to the consumer.  A quick glance shows that our major agri-food products are clustered in the bottom of the chart with tariffs of 10-50%.