Source: ESRI and Dept of Finance


The Department of Finance in Dublin commissioned this 12-page paper from the Economic and Social Research Institute. It includes the most substantial economic modelling to date of the likely Brexit impact on the Irish economy.   Their outlook is stark: “We find that the level of Irish output is permanently below what it otherwise would have been in the absence of BREXIT.” Best option, with the UK following the Norwegian EEA model, would reduce real output by almost 2.5%. On the worst option of WTO (World Trade Organisation) tariffs it would be down by almost 4%,