Rand Corp: UK worse off under most plausible scenarios
Leading US think tank the Rand Corporation has turned its attention to Brexit in its Examining Economic Outcomes series, and its findings are harsh.
“The UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most plausible scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse-off it will be post-Brexit.”
Worst of all is the crash-out scenario, leaving without any agreement and reverting to WTO tariffs: “trading under WTO rules would reduce future GDP by around five per cent ten years after Brexit, or $140 billion, compared with EU membership.”
The EU would also lose out, but at a scale of just 0.7 per cent over the same timescale.