Brexit apart, the Irish economy is doing grand
It was a long time coming but the Irish economy is now firing on all cylinders, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its quarterly economic forecast.
“The Irish economy looks set to experience another year of strong recovery in 2017. The performance of key indicators … underpins our assessment that the domestic economy will experience output growth of approximately 5 per cent for the current year. We expect the
economy to also grow strongly in 2018, at a rate of 4.2 per cent.”
By way of comparison, the EU as a whole is in strong recovery but its growth will average 1.9 per cent for the same period. This time the other countries are not lifting us: “… much of the Irish
growth is due to domestic factors.”
There is just one big black cloud on our economic horizon: “… the precarious nature of the UK economy, especially given the uncertainty of the Brexit outcome …. Recentyear-on-year quarterly results show the UK as one of the poorest performers in
the advanced world during what can otherwise be regarded as a global upswing in growth.”
The Central Bank sounds a similar warning in its Macro-financial Review: “The Irish economy is projected to grow by 3.5 per cent and 3.2 per cent in real GDP terms in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The
impact of Brexit on the Irish economy both in the short and long
term is likely to be negative and material.
“Exchange rate effects, changes in UK demand,and any new barriers to trade arising from Brexit, as well as anychanges to broader international taxation and tradearrangements, could have an adverse effect on the Irish economy.”